[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 May 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z MAY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 17 MAY - 19 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 May:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/SF    1042UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 May: 138/92

GOES satellite data for 15 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.40E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 May             18 May             19 May
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   145/99             150/105            155/109

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 16 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   2233 1002
      Darwin               4   2222 1002
      Townsville           3   2122 0001
      Learmonth            8   2233 2112
      Canberra             6   2233 1001
      Hobart               6   2233 1002
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 MAY : 
      Darwin              10   (Quiet)
      Townsville          64   (Active)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            45   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              52   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             16   2244 2443     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 May    12    Unsettled 
18 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
19 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Moderately disturbed conditions expected during forecast 
period, isolated minor storm periods may be experienced. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
18 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
19 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected during the forecast 
period, particularly during local night hours, at mid to high 
latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
16 May    98

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Depressed by 30% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May: 117

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 May   115    Near predicted monthly values 
18 May   115    Near predicted monthly values 
19 May   115    Near predicted monthly values 


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