[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 May 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z MAY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 16 MAY - 18 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:**YELLOW**     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 May:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/1N    0300UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 May: 142/96

GOES satellite data for 14 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.50E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 May             17 May             18 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            160/114            170/124

COMMENT: A large mass ejection was observed off the north-east 
limb. This may indicate that solar region 9433 is returning. 
Solar flare activity may increase over the coming days. The M1 
event was from region 9455, in the southwest quadrant of the 
solar disk, and was associated with a type II and a very weak type 
IV radio sweep (suggesting a CME). Due to weakness of radio sweep 
signature, this event is not expected to be very geoeffective. 
If any effects are to eventuate, event data suggests a possible 
weak shock arrival window 17/08-19UT. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 15 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region      11   2233 2332
      Darwin               9   2223 1332
      Townsville          15   --33 234-
      Learmonth           11   2233 2332
      Canberra            11   1233 2331
      Hobart              11   1233 2331
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 MAY : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville          37   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            14   (Quiet)
      Hobart              60   (Unsettled)
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12   4341 2332     
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 May     7    Quiet 
17 May    14    Unsettled to Active 
18 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Outside chance of active periods on late 17 May due 
to recent recent M1 event. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 May      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
18 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Chance of mild degradation on 17-18 May, local night 
hours. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
15 May    91

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May: 117

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 May   105    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
17 May   115    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 15% 
18 May   100    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mildly depressed MUFs observed yesterday,mostly dueing
local night hours. There is a chance for a mild degradation in HF 
conditions, during second half of UT day 17 May, high latitudes 
only. Also, shortwave fadeouts may become more frequent in coming 
days due to the possible return of a previously active region. 

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