[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 May 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z MAY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 08 MAY - 10 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 May: 138/92

GOES satellite data for 06 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.8E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.30E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 May             09 May             10 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             130/84             125/78

COMMENT: The north south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field was southward 5 to 10nt 00-07 UT. Solar wind speed was 
mildly elevated. Two coronal mass ejections were observed off 
the western limb of the Sun. The first CME was observed around 
11UT, and was south-west directed. This event appeared not to 
be associated with any on disk activity, suggesting a behind 
the limb (non geoeffective) event. The second CME was observed 
around 12UT and was a larger/faster north-west directed mass 
ejection. This CME appears to be associated with a C4 flare which
began at 1136UT from region 9445 in the north west quadrant of the solar 
disk. A 10 Mev proton event began 1945UT. Assuming, by event 
timing, that the C4 event did produce the second CME, a glancing 
blow shock arrival is possible second half of May 9. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 07 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       9   2232 3222
      Darwin               8   2322 2221
      Townsville           9   2232 322-
      Learmonth           11   2332 3232
      Canberra             9   1232 3322
      Hobart               9   1232 3322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 MAY : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             16                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7   1022 3322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
09 May    20    Active to minor storm 
10 May    13    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Increased geomagnetic activity expected on 08 May due 
to possible glancing blow from predominately westward directed coronal 
mass ejection. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 May      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 07 05 2001 1945UT and 
	    is in progress.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 May      Normal         Normal         Fair-poor(Proton Event)     
09 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor     
10 May      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal   
COMMENT: High latitude HF communications likely to experience 
increased absorption today due to elevated solar proton flux. 
In addition mid/high latitude HF commms may be degraded on 
late 09 May due to anticipated geomagnetic activity from recent mass 
ejection. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
07 May   127

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for May: 117

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 May   130    near predicted monthly values 
09 May   130    near predicted monthly values 
10 May   110    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Southern region Aus/NZ may experience degraded conditions 
local night 09-10 May. 

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