[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 May 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z MAY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 09 MAY - 11 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 May: 129/82

GOES satellite data for 07 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.0E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 May             10 May             11 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             120/72             115/66
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 May: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 08 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region      10   1023 3333
      Darwin              10   1023 3333
      Townsville           9   1123 323-
      Learmonth           12   2123 3343
      Canberra            10   1023 3332
      Hobart               9   0023 3333
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 MAY : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              12   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             17   4543 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 May    20    Active to minor storm 
10 May    13    Unsettled 
11 May    10    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 18 was issued on 7 May and is 
current for interval 9-10 May. Increased geomagnetic activity 
expected on second half of 09 May due to glancing blow from predominately 
westward directed coronal mass ejection. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 May      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-poor      
PCA Event : Began at 1945UT 07/05, Ended at 1730UT 08/05.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
10 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
11 May      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal   
COMMENT: Conditions at high latitudes expected to improve before 
becoming degraded again late on 09 May due to anticipated geomagnetic 
activity from recent mass ejection. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
08 May   136

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Absorption and spread F observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for May: 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 May   130    near predicted monthly values 
10 May   110    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 15% 
11 May   130    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 30 was issued on 8 May 
and is current for interval 9-10 May. Southern region Aus/NZ 
may experience degraded conditions local night late 09-10 May. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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