[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 May 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z MAY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 07 MAY - 09 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 May: 155/109

GOES satellite data for 05 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.0E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 May             08 May             09 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            145/99             140/94
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 May: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 06 May :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   1022 1012
      Darwin               3   1122 1012
      Townsville           3   1022 1012
      Learmonth            5   2122 2122
      Canberra             2   0021 1012
      Hobart               1   0011 1010
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 MAY : 
      Darwin              10   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra            16   (Quiet)
      Hobart              28   (Quiet to unsettled)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5   1012 2222     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 May     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
08 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
09 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 May      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
06 May   137

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
      Some spread F observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for May: 117

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 May   130    Near predicted monthly values 
08 May   130    near predicted monthly values 
09 May   130    near predicted monthly values 


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