[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 March 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 27/2330Z MARCH 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 28 MARCH - 30 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:*RED*   ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Mar:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M2/1N    1630UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Mar: 273/225

GOES satellite data for 26 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Mar             29 Mar             30 Mar
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   235/185            240/189            240/189


A moderate shock was observed in the solar wind at 1714UT on 27 Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Mar: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 27 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       16   4323 2345
      Darwin               17   4323 2445
      Townsville           17   4323 2445
      Learmonth            18   5323 2245
      Canberra             14   3323 2345
      Hobart               14   3323 2345
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 MAR : 
      Darwin                6   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             7   (Quiet)
      Canberra             21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               23   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              6   0011 3232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Mar    25    Unsettled to active with the chance of minor 
                and possible major storm periods. 
29 Mar    16    Unsettled to active 
30 Mar    12    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 7 was issued on 27 March and 
is current for interval 27-28 March. A weak shock was observed 
in the solar wind parameters at 0109UT which produced a sudden 
impulse in the geomagnetic field at 0144UT of 25-30nT across 
the Australian region. Mostly unsettled levels followed the sudden 
impulse. A moderate shock was observed in the solar wind parameters 
at 1714UT which produced a sudden impulse in the geomagnetic 
field at 1747UT of 30nT across the Australian region. Minor storm 
periods followed and are again possible for 28 March. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Mar      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
29 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
30 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions may become depressed 15-30% at times for 
28 March due to recent increased geomagnetic activity levels. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
27 Mar   149

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March: 115

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Mar    90    depressed 15 to 30%/near predicted monthly values 
29 Mar   110    depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
30 Mar   120    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 12 was issued on 25 March 
and is current for interval 26-28 March (SWFs) . HF conditions 
may become depressed 15-30% at times for 28 March due to recent 
increased geomagnetic activity levels. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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