[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 March 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z MARCH 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 29 MARCH - 31 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Mar:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.1    0159UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.3    0948UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  M4.3    1240UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.6    1910UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/North American
  M1.7    2248UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Mar: 274/226

GOES satellite data for 27 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.6E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.5E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C2.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Mar             30 Mar             31 Mar
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   270/221            265/216            255/205

COMMENT: A large solar region is visible near centre of the solar disk 
and has good major flare potential, but no X-class event as yet. 
Halo coronal mass ejections were observed with the M1 flare at 0159UT
and the M4 flare at 1240UT. Mass ejections appeared to be of weak to 
moderate strength. Two shocks are now expected to arrive in the window 
30/1400UT to 31/1100UT. Further flares and fadeouts likely. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Mar: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 28 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       29   3255 5433
      Darwin               26   3255 4433
      Townsville           28   2255 5433
      Learmonth            34   4255 5533
      Canberra             27   2255 5424
      Hobart               25   3245 5423
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 MAR : 
      Darwin               32   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           12   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            37   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             78   (Active)
      Hobart              122   (Severe storm)
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        24
           Planetary             30                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             18   4223 2345     
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Mar    14    Unsettled to active 
30 Mar    20    quiet to unsettled, then active to minor storm 
                second half of UT day. 
31 Mar    30    Minor storm 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 28 March and 
is current for interval 29-31 March. Overnight geomagnetic activity 
followed recent shock arrivls. Further geomagnetic actoivity 
is expected 30 Mar to 01 Apr due to recent mass ejections. There 
is a chance for isolated periods of major storm levels during 
local night hours dueing interval 30-31 Mar. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
30 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
31 Mar      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected from second half of 
30 Mar to 01 Apr. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
28 Mar   147

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 40% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for March: 115

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Mar   150    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values 
30 Mar   100    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 15% 
31 Mar    90    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 13 was issued on 28 March 
and is current for interval 28-29 March. Enhanced conditions 
expected for today. Depressed MUFs and degraded HF conditions 
expected beginning late 30 Mar. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060