[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 March 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 26/2330Z MARCH 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 27 MARCH - 29 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:*YELLOW*   ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Mar:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M2/1N    0239UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
 M2/1F    1326UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Mar: 264/215

GOES satellite data for 25 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.4E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C2.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Mar             28 Mar             29 Mar
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   225/175            230/180            235/185



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 26 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region        4   2211 2012
      Darwin                4   3211 1012
      Townsville            2   1101 2012
      Learmonth             5   2211 2-22
      Canberra              2   1101 2001
      Hobart                3   2211 2001
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 MAR : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              9   (Quiet)
      Hobart                4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8   1233 2232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Mar    20    Initially quiet to unsettled with the chance 
                of active and possible minor storm periods later. 
28 Mar    16    Unsettled to active 
29 Mar    10    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Active to minor storm levels are possible for 27-28 
March as the result of recent flare activity. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
28 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
29 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions may become degraded for 27-28 March due 
to anticipated increased geomagnetic activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
26 Mar   155

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      otherwise enhanced by 15-20%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      otherwise enhanced by 20-25%.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      otherwise enhanced by 15-30%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March: 115

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Mar   120    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
28 Mar   110    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
29 Mar   115    depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 12 was issued on 25 March 
and is current for interval 26-28 March (SWFs) . HF conditions 
may become degraded for 27-28 March due to anticipated increased 
geomagnetic activity. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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