[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 March 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 25/2330Z MARCH 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 26 MARCH - 28 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:GREEN   ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Mar:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.1 24/2319UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M2.5    0425UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M2.6    1112UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Mar: 217/167

GOES satellite data for 24 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B9.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Mar             27 Mar             28 Mar
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   220/170            220/170            220/170



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 25 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region        4   1222 1012
      Darwin                3   2221 1002
      Townsville            3   1221 1013
      Learmonth            11   -332 223-
      Canberra              3   1222 1000
      Hobart                5   1322 1011
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 MAR : 
      Darwin                8   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             18   (Quiet)
      Hobart               20   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             13   1343 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
27 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
28 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
27 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
28 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
25 Mar   128

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Normal to enhanced by 15%.


Predicted Monthly T index for March: 115

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Mar   120    Near predicted monthly values 
27 Mar   130    Near predicted monthly values 
28 Mar   130    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 12 was issued on 25 March 
and is current for interval 26-28 March (SWFs) . 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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