[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 March 01
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 23 10:42:06 EST 2001
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z MARCH 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 23 MARCH - 25 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW* MAG:*YELLOW* ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Mar: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0515UT possible lower East Asia/Australia
M1.6 0822UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.1 1320UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Mar: 183/136
GOES satellite data for 21 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal)
X-ray background: B9.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Mar 24 Mar 25 Mar
Activity Moderate Moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 180/133 180/133 180/133
A possible weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 1241UT on 22 Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 22 Mar : A K
Australian Region 9 1222 3333
Darwin 9 2222 3323
Townsville 9 2222 3323
Learmonth 12 2222 3434
Canberra 9 1221 3333
Hobart 5 0222 2---
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 MAR :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 19 4331 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Mar 16 Unsettled to active
24 Mar 16 Unsettled to active
25 Mar 10 Quiet to unsettled
COMMENT: A weak shock was observed in the solar wind parameters
at 1241UT which produced a sudden impulse in the geomagnetic
field of 20-30nT across the Australian region at 1341UT. The
shock is likely to be due to the CME event observed on 20 March.
Unsettled to active levels followed the sudden impulse in the
geomagnetic field. Mostly unsettled to active conditions are
expected over the next couple of days due to a coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Mar Normal Normal-Fair Fair
24 Mar Normal Normal-Fair Fair
25 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal with
possible depressions of 10-20% at times over the next couple
of days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Mar 151
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 25% at times.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Mar 120 near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
24 Mar 125 Near predicted monthly values
25 Mar 130 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal with
possible depressions of 10-20% at times over the next couple
of days.
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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