[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 March 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z MARCH 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 22 MARCH - 24 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:*YELLOW*   ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Mar:  Low

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/0N    0237UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Mar: 159/113

GOES satellite data for 20 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Mar             23 Mar             24 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            150/105            140/94



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Mar: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 21 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region        4   2211 2114
      Darwin                3   2-11 1114
      Townsville            5   2212 2114
      Learmonth            11   222- 333-
      Canberra              3   2211 1003
      Hobart                3   2211 2003
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 MAR : 
      Darwin                8   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra              0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               16   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        27
           Planetary             66   5566 7643     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Mar    20    Quiet to unsettled initially with the chance 
                of active to minor storm periods later in the 
                UT day. 
23 Mar    25    Unsettled to active with the chance of minor 
                storm periods. 
24 Mar    15    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: Active to minor storm periods possible over the next 
couple of days due to recently observed CME events and a coronal 
hole. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Mar      Normal         Normal-poor    Poor-fair      
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair          
23 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair          
24 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Depressions of 10-20% possible at times over the next 
couple of days for middle to high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
21 Mar    99

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      otherwise enhanced by 20%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly depressed by 30% during local night,
      otherwise mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March: 115

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Mar   110    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
23 Mar   110    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
24 Mar   120    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Depressions of 10-20% possible at times over the next 
couple of days for southern Australian/New Zealand and Antarctic 
regions. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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