[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 March 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z MARCH 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 21 MARCH - 23 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Mar:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/0F    0333UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
 M1/0F    0218UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
 M1/1F    1507UT  possible   lower  South American/Atlantic
 M1/0F    1424UT  possible   lower  South American/Atlantic
 M1/--    2108UT  possible   lower  East Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Mar: 153/108

GOES satellite data for 19 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B5.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Mar             22 Mar             23 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            150/105            140/94
COMMENT: Two weak shocks were observed in the solar wind at 1021UT 
and 1441UT on 19 Mar. Following shock arrival solar wind peaked 
at around 500km/sec near 17UT on 19 Mar then declined. Solar 
wind speed continued to decline on 20 Mar falling to 380km/sec 
by 21UT on 20 Mar. However, the north-south component of the 
interplantary magnetic field became (unexpectedly) strongly southward 
(10 to 20nT) during the interval 10-20UT on 20 Mar. A southward 
IMF is associated with periods geomagnetic activity. The M1 events 
at 02 and 21UT were associated with Type II radio sweeps and 
available data suggets shock arrrival windows of 23/03-17UT and 
23/16-24/03UT. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Mar: Unsettled to Severe Storm 
Estimated Indices 20 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       55   4355 7643
      Darwin               42   4344 7533
      Townsville           40   3355 6543
      Learmonth            69   4355 864-
      Canberra             64   3466 7642
      Hobart               48   44-6 -642
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 MAR : 
      Darwin               11   (Quiet)
      Townsville            4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             38   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               92   (Minor storm)
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        50
           Planetary             65                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             22   2233 4554     
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Mar    16    Unsettled to Active 
22 Mar    16    Unsettled to active 
23 Mar    20    Active, chance of minor storm periods. 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity that followed shock arrival on 19 Mar 
appeared to be declining. However activity re-intensified during 
second half of UT day on 20 Mar, in association with strongly 
southward IMF. Activity should generally decline today, however 
there is an outside chance for isolated active periods on 21 Mar 
from weak radio sweep event on 18 Mar. Active periods may be 
experienced on 22 Mar due to the small coronal hole. Two 
shocks/impulses are expected 23 Mar 03-17UT, and 23/16 to 24/03UT 
from recent M1/CME events. Active to minor storm conditions possible
on 23/24 Mar. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Mar      Normal-fair    Normal-poor    Fair-poor      
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Poor-fair     
22 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
23 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor     
COMMENT: Strongly degraded HF conditions observed at mid to high 
latitudes during second half of UT day on 20 Mar. Degraded conditions 
associated with unexpected intensification of geomagnetic activity. 
Further degradation expected on 23 Mar. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
20 Mar    92

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      No data.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day,
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March: 115

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Mar   130    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
22 Mar   110    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
23 Mar   100    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Strongly degraded HF conditions observed overnight. 
Degradation impacted all latitudes. Some southern region sites
depressed 20% after local dawn this morning. Periods of degraded HF 
conditions expected over next few days at mid to high latitudes. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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