[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 March 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z MARCH 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 20 MARCH - 22 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Mar: 147/101

GOES satellite data for 18 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Mar             21 Mar             22 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             140/94             140/94

COMMENT: Two weak shocks observed in the solar wind at 1021UT 
and 1441UT. Solar wind peaked at around 500km/sec near 17UT. 
A small isolated coronal hole is approaching the centre of the 
solar disk. Also, a weak type II radio sweep along with a small 
C class flare were observed on 18 Mar, from region 9373 located 
at S09W41. There is an outside chance of this event reaching 
the earth. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Mar: Quiet to Minor Storm 

Estimated Indices 19 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       19   1123 3554
      Darwin               20   2123 3554
      Townsville           19   1123 3554
      Learmonth            25   2223 3565
      Canberra             21   1123 4554
      Hobart               30   1123 4664
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 MAR : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              0   (Quiet)
      Hobart                0   (Quiet)
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7   3322 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Mar    12    Unsettled 
21 Mar    15    Unsettled to Active 
22 Mar    16    active 
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity that followed shock arrival was 
brief with two minor storm periods observed, a possible weak 
impulse of around 20nT was observed at 1114UT. The field is now 
returning to unsettled levels. Also, there is an outside chance 
for isolated active periods on 21 Mar from weak radio sweep event 
on 18 Mar. Active periods may be experienced on 22-23 Mar due 
to the small coronal hole. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-poor    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
21 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
22 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Degraded conditions observed late in UT day at mid to 
high latitudes. Conditions are expected to improve today as day 
progresses. A return to mildly degraded conditions is possible 
during local night hours on days 2 and 3. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
19 Mar   153

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      No data.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.

Predicted Monthly T index for March: 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Mar    70    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values .
                (Southern Aus/NZ region)
20 Mar   115    near normal (Northern Aus. region)
21 Mar   130    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 15% 
22 Mar   110    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 9 was issued on 19 March 
and is current for interval 20 March only, mid to high latitudes. 
Ionospheric depression affecting southern (mid to high latitudes)
Aus/NZ only. Northern (equatorial) communicators should use 
an T index of 115, as disturbance is not of sufficient magnitude
to effect MUFs in northern region.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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