[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 March 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z MARCH 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 19 MARCH - 21 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Mar: 140/94

GOES satellite data for 17 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.2E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Mar             20 Mar             21 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             130/84             135/89

COMMENT: An isolated coronal hole is approaching the centre of 
the solar disk. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 18 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region        5   2222 1112
      Darwin                4   2221 1112
      Townsville            4   2221 1112
      Learmonth             8   -322 -22-
      Canberra              4   2222 0112
      Hobart                5   2222 1112
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 MAR : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              0   (Quiet)
      Hobart                0   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   0000 2321     
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Mar    18    Unsettled to active 
20 Mar    12    Unsettled 
21 Mar     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: No sign yet of active periods from recent mass ejection. 
Active periods remain possible over next 24 hours due to recent 
mass ejection. Also, a mild increase in geomagnetic activity 
may be experienced on 22-23 Mar due to the small coronal hole. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
20 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
21 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions expected local night hours 
on at high latitudes only. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
18 Mar   155

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March: 115

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Mar   115    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 15% 
20 Mar   115    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
21 Mar   130    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Minor depression possile later today and after local 
dawn tommorrow, if mild geomagnetic activity from recent mass 
ejection eventuates. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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