[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 March 01
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 18 10:15:30 EST 2001
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z MARCH 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 18 MARCH - 20 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Mar: 134/88
GOES satellite data for 16 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B5.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 130/84
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Mar : A K
Australian Region 3 1100 1221
Darwin 4 1111 1222
Townsville 2 0100 1221
Learmonth 6 2111 2232
Canberra 2 0000 1221
Hobart 2 0000 1221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 MAR :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0000 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Mar 14 Unsettled to Active
19 Mar 18 Unsettled to active
20 Mar 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 5 was issued on 16 March and
is current for interval 18 March only. Active periods expected
due to recent mass ejection.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
19 Mar Normal Normal-Fair Fair
20 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions expected local night hours
on next two days of forecast period, at high latitudes only.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Mar 145
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for March: 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Mar 130 near predicted monthly values
19 Mar 115 depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
20 Mar 115 depressed 10 to 15%/Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Minor depression possile on days 2 and 3 of forecast
after local dawn at mid to high latitudes due to expected mild
geomagnetic activity from recent moderate mass ejection. Darwin
MUfs have been enhenaced during local night hours over last few
days.
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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