[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 March 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z MARCH 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 18 MARCH - 20 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Mar: 134/88

GOES satellite data for 16 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.5E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B5.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Mar             19 Mar             20 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             130/84



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 17 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region        3   1100 1221
      Darwin                4   1111 1222
      Townsville            2   0100 1221
      Learmonth             6   2111 2232
      Canberra              2   0000 1221
      Hobart                2   0000 1221
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 MAR : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              0   (Quiet)
      Hobart                0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              2                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2   0000 1221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Mar    14    Unsettled to Active 
19 Mar    18    Unsettled to active 
20 Mar    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 5 was issued on 16 March and 
is current for interval 18 March only. Active periods expected 
due to recent mass ejection. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
19 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
20 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions expected local night hours 
on next two days of forecast period, at high latitudes only. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
17 Mar   145

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March: 115

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Mar   130    near predicted monthly values 
19 Mar   115    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
20 Mar   115    depressed 10 to 15%/Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Minor depression possile on days 2 and 3 of forecast 
after local dawn at mid to high latitudes due to expected mild 
geomagnetic activity from recent moderate mass ejection. Darwin 
MUfs have been enhenaced during local night hours over last few 
days. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
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