[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 March 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z MARCH 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 17 MARCH - 19 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Mar: 140/94

GOES satellite data for 15 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.1E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Mar             18 Mar             19 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             130/84             130/84

COMMENT: A semi-halo coronal mass ejection was observed in the 
LASCO space based coronagraph images commencing around 0400UT 
on 16 Mar. The halo appeared to be biased more around the northern 
hemisphere of the solar disk and subjectively of moderate strength. 
The large bushy filament in the northwest quadrant remains in 
place, and CME was possibly associated with a small C class flare 
and the possible eruption of a minor filament. Isolated M class 
flaring remains possible. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 16 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region        1   0000 1112
      Darwin                1   0000 1112
      Townsville            1   0000 1113
      Learmonth             4   2111 1222
      Canberra              0   0000 0101
      Hobart                0   0000 0111
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 MAR : 
      Darwin                5   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               10   (Quiet)
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   0021 1121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Mar     3    Quiet 
18 Mar    14    Unsettled to Active 
19 Mar    18    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: Active periods expected on days two and three of forecast 
period following todays moderate mass ejection event. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
19 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions expected local night hours 
on days two and three of forecast period, at high latitudes only. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
16 Mar   147

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 25% during local night.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
     Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March: 115

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Mar   130    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
18 Mar   130    near predicted monthly values 
19 Mar   130    depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Minor depression possile on day 3 of forecast after 
local dawn at mid to high latitudes due to expected mild geomagnetic 
activity from todays moderate mass ejection. 

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