[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 March 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z MARCH 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 16 MARCH - 18 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Mar: 136/90

GOES satellite data for 14 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.1E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             16 Mar             17 Mar             18 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             130/84             130/84
COMMENT:Isolated low level M flare possible.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 15 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region        1   1110 0011
      Darwin                1   1110 0011
      Townsville            1   1110 0010
      Learmonth             5   3121 1111
      Canberra              0   0110 0001
      Hobart                1   0121 0000
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 MAR : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               10   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              7   2233 2121     
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
16 Mar     7    Quiet 
17 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
18 Mar     9    Quiet to Unsettled 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
18 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
15 Mar   138

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
     Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March: 115

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
16 Mar   125    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
17 Mar   125    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
18 Mar   125    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 


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