[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 March 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 14/2330Z MARCH 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 15 MARCH - 17 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Mar: 142/96

GOES satellite data for 13 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.9E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B5.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Mar             16 Mar             17 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             135/89             135/89

COMMENT: Isolated low level M flare possible from region in south-east 
quadrant. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 14 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region        5   2312 1111
      Darwin                5   2312 1011
      Townsville            4   2211 1110
      Learmonth             7   3212 1223
      Canberra              6   2312 2010
      Hobart                7   2322 2110
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 MAR : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             18   (Quiet)
      Hobart               44   (Unsettled)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   2223 2222     
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Mar     3    Quiet 
16 Mar     4    Quiet 
17 Mar     6    Quiet 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
14 Mar   139

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
  Northern Australian Region:
     Mostly near predicted monthly values,
     Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March: 115

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Mar   125    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
16 Mar   125    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
17 Mar   125    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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