[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 March 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z MARCH 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 24 MARCH - 26 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*  MAG:*YELLOW*   ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Mar: 180/133

GOES satellite data for 22 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.6
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Mar             25 Mar             26 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   180/133            180/133            180/133



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Mar: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 23 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       21   3434 4433
      Darwin               17   2433 3433
      Townsville           17   3434 3322
      Learmonth            28   3-3- 553-
      Canberra             17   2434 3423
      Hobart               21   3434 ----
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 MAR : 
      Darwin                6   (Quiet)
      Townsville           NA
      Learmonth             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             33   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               46   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        21
           Planetary             21                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             10   1011 3423     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Mar    16    Unsettled to active 
25 Mar    16    Unsettled to active 
26 Mar    10    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: Mostly unsettled to active conditions are expected over 
the next couple of days due to a coronal hole. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Mar      Normal         Normal-poor    Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Mar      Normal         Poor-normal    Poor-fair     
25 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
26 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: HF conditions are expected to be mostly normal with 
possible depressions of 10-20% at times over the next couple 
of days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
23 Mar   131

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March: 115

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Mar   100    Depressed 15-30% initially for southern Australian 
                regions, otherwise mostly near predicted monthly 
                values. 
25 Mar   120    Near predicted monthly values 
26 Mar   130    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 11 was issued on 23 March 
and is current for interval 24 March only. MUF's have been depressed 
15-30% since local dawn for southern Australian/New Zealand regions 
and are expected to be depressed 15-30% at times for the remainder 
of the local day for these regions. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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