[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 March 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 10/2330Z MARCH 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 11 MARCH - 13 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Mar:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M6/1B    0405UT  probable   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Mar: 160/114

GOES satellite data for 09 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Mar             12 Mar             13 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            150/105            150/105

COMMENT: A strong type III and weak type II radio bursts were 
produced by a M6 flare at 0405UT on 10 MAR accompanied by a CME 
from region 9368. The type II burst observed at Culgoora was 
not distinct enough for proper shock speed determination. No 
Culgoora presto was generated for this event. A further CME was 
observed off the south-east limb. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 10 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region        5   1321 1121
      Darwin                5   1311 1121
      Townsville            5   1311 1121
      Learmonth             7   2322 1221
      Canberra              5   1321 1121
      Hobart                5   1221 2121
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 MAR : 
      Darwin                2   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             15   (Quiet)
      Hobart               16   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   2121 2321     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
12 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
13 Mar     7    Quiet 
COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions with chance of unsettled periods 
are expected for the next few days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
13 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions should be mostly normal over the next 
few days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
10 Mar   143

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March: 115

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Mar   140    Near predicted monthly values 
12 Mar   140    Near predicted monthly values 
13 Mar   140    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions should be mostly normal over the next 
following days. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060