[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 March 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 09/2330Z MARCH 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 10 MARCH - 12 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Mar:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/1B    0157UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
 M1/--    1028UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Mar: 161/115

GOES satellite data for 08 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.6E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.30E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B9.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Mar             11 Mar             12 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            165/119            165/119
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 09 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region        5   2221 2212
      Darwin                5   2221 1212
      Townsville            5   1122 2212
      Learmonth             8   3222 2222
      Canberra              5   1221 2211
      Hobart                5   1221 2211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 MAR : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               40   (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   1023 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Mar     6    Quiet 
11 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
12 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions with chance of unsettled periods 
are expected for the next few days. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
12 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions should be mostly normal over the next 
few days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
09 Mar   132

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March: 115

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Mar   135    near predicted monthly values 
11 Mar   140    Near predicted monthly values 
12 Mar   140    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions should be mostly normal over the next 
following days. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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