[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 March 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 08/2330Z MARCH 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 09 MARCH - 11 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Mar:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M5/1B    1118UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Mar: 167/121

GOES satellite data for 07 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 Mar             10 Mar             11 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   170/124            170/124            165/119
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 08 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region        5   1122 1223
      Darwin                4   1112 1123
      Townsville            4   1112 1223
      Learmonth             7   222- 2223
      Canberra              5   1222 1222
      Hobart                6   -122 2---
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 MAR : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               17   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              7   1232 2321     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 Mar     7    Quiet 
10 Mar     6    Quiet 
11 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions with chance of unsettled periods 
are expected for the next two days, with the chance of unsettled 
periods on 11 Mar due to possible arrival of a shock associated 
with the M5 flare/CME observed on 8 Mar after 1133UT originating 
from region 9368. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions should be mostly normal over the next 
few days. SWFs possible. Mildly depressed conditions may be expected 
for 11 MAR. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
08 Mar   144

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG and Northern Australian Regions:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March: 115

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 Mar   145    near predicted monthly values 
10 Mar   145    near predicted monthly values 
11 Mar   140    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions should be mostly normal over the next 
two days. Mildly depressed conditions may be expected for the 
11 Mar after the possible arrival of a shock associated with 
the M5/CME observed on the 8 Mar after 1130UT. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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