[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 March 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 07/2330Z MARCH 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 08 MARCH - 10 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Mar: 177/131

GOES satellite data for 06 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.2E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B5.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Mar             09 Mar             10 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           None expected
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            165/119            165/119
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 07 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region        6   2222 1223
      Darwin                5   2222 1213
      Townsville            5   2212 2113
      Learmonth             7   2222 2223
      Canberra              5   2212 1222
      Hobart                5   2221 1---
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 MAR : 
      Darwin                6   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             20   (Quiet)
      Hobart               54   (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6   1122 2232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
09 Mar     7    Quiet 
10 Mar     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters indicate the effects of the coronal 
hole has now declined and mostly quiet to unsettled to quiet 
conditions are expected for the next few days. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
09 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
10 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: HF conditions should be mostly normal over the next 
few days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
07 Mar   147

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG and Northern Australian Regions:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 40% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March: 115

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Mar   145    near predicted monthly values 
09 Mar   150    near predicted monthly values 
10 Mar   150    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions should be mostly normal over the next 
few days. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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