[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 March 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 06/2330Z MARCH 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 07 MARCH - 09 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN   ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Mar: 158/112

GOES satellite data for 05 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Mar             08 Mar             09 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   162/116            165/119            165/119



-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 06 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region        5   2211 2122
      Darwin                4   2211 1123
      Townsville            4   1211 1123
      Learmonth            14   3--3 224-
      Canberra              4   1211 2121
      Hobart                5   1221 2121
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 MAR : 
      Darwin               20   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             76   (Active)
      Hobart               93   (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             18   5444 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Mar    10    Quiet to unsettled with the chance of isolated 
                active periods. 
08 Mar     8    Quiet to unsettled 
09 Mar     8    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters indicate the effects of the coronal 
hole are declining and mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are 
expected for the next few days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
08 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
09 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions should be mostly normal over the next 
few days. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
06 Mar   154

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15-25%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 35% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March: 115

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Mar   135    Near predicted monthly values 
08 Mar   135    Near predicted monthly values 
09 Mar   135    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions should be mostly normal over the next 
few days. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060