[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 March 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z MARCH 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 12 MARCH - 14 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Mar: 158/112

GOES satellite data for 10 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Mar             13 Mar             14 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            150/105            145/99
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Mar: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 11 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region        2   1111 1002
      Darwin                2   1111 1003
      Townsville            1   1101 1002
      Learmonth             5   2222 1112
      Canberra              1   1100 1001
      Hobart                1   1110 1000
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 MAR : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              0   (Quiet)
      Hobart                0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   1211 2231     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Mar     6    Quiet 
13 Mar     7    Quiet 
14 Mar     7    Quiet 
COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions with chance of unsettled periods 
are expected for the next few days. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
13 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
14 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: HF conditions should be mostly normal over the next 
few days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
11 Mar   148

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 40% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March: 115

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Mar   145    Near predicted monthly values 
13 Mar   145    Near predicted monthly values 
14 Mar   145    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions should be mostly normal over the next 
following days. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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