[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 March 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 03/2330Z MARCH 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 04 MARCH - 06 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Mar: 140/94

GOES satellite data for 02 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Mar             05 Mar             06 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   140/94             135/89             135/89


A weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 1038UT on 03 Mar.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 03 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       11   2213 3333
      Darwin               11   2213 3333
      Townsville           10   1113 4232
      Learmonth            12   3223 3334
      Canberra             12   2213 4332
      Hobart                9   2213 3232
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 MAR : 
      Darwin                2   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             20   (Quiet)
      Hobart               20   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        20
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   1122 2333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Mar    12    Mostly quiet to unsettled with the chance of 
                active periods. 
05 Mar     8    Quiet to unsettled 
06 Mar    15    Mostly quiet to unsettled with the chance of 
                active periods. 
COMMENT: A weak shock was observed in the solar wind at 1040UT 
which produced a sudden impulse in the geomagnetic field of 20nT 
across the Australian region at 1121UT. Unsettled to active levels 
followed. Geomagnetic activity should be mostly quiet to unsettled 
with active levels again possible for 5-6 March due to a coronal 
hole. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
05 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
06 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were only slightly effected by the increase 
in geomagnetic activity observed during 3 March. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
03 Mar   148

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      otherwise enhanced by 20%.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March: 115

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Mar   125    depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
05 Mar   130    near predicted monthly values 
06 Mar   130    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 8 was issued on 1 March 
and is current for interval 3-4 March. HF conditions were only 
slightly effected by the increase in geomagnetic activity observed 
during 3 March. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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