[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 March 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z MARCH 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 05 MARCH - 07 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:*YELLOW*  ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Mar: 141/95

GOES satellite data for 03 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Mar             06 Mar             07 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             135/89



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Mar: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 04 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region       17   2343 3344
      Darwin               12   2332 3334
      Townsville           14   2342 3333
      Learmonth            15   3233 3344
      Canberra             15   1243 3344
      Hobart               17   2343 3344
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 MAR : 
      Darwin               10   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             36   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               67   (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             14                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             14   2314 4343     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Mar    15    Unsettled to Active 
06 Mar    15    Unsettled to Active 
07 Mar    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: Prolonged periods of southward IMF have produced active 
levels of geomagnetic activity for 4 March. Geomagnetic activity 
should be mostly unsettled to active for 5-6 March due to a coronal 
hole. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
06 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
07 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: HF conditions may become slightly degraded at times 
over the next few days. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
04 Mar   146

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March: 115

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Mar   110    depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 
06 Mar   120    Near predicted monthly values 
07 Mar   130    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: HF conditions may become slightly degraded at times 
over the next few days. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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