[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 March 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 02/2330Z MARCH 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 03 MARCH - 05 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:*YELLOW*   ION:*YELLOW*
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Mar: 130/84

GOES satellite data for 01 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.8E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Mar             04 Mar             05 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             125/78



-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 02 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region        8   2122 2332
      Darwin                8   2221 2333
      Townsville            7   2112 2232
      Learmonth             9   2222 2333
      Canberra              8   2112 2332
      Hobart                8   2122 2332
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 MAR : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             30   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               12   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   3111 1221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Mar    20    Unsettled with the chance of active and possible 
                minor storm periods. 
04 Mar    12    Unsettled 
05 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 4 was issued on 1 March and 
is current for interval 2-3 March. A halo CME observed on 28 
February is expected to impact the Earth on 3 March and produce 
active and possible minor storm periods. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
04 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
05 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions are expected for 3 March 
due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
02 Mar   142

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March: 115

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Mar   115    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
04 Mar   125    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 
05 Mar   130    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 8 was issued on 1 March 
and is current for interval 3-4 March. Mildly degraded HF conditions 
are expected for 3 March due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060