[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 March 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 01/2330Z MARCH 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 02 MARCH - 04 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:**RED**  ION:*YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Mar: 131/85

GOES satellite data for 28 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.30E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Mar             03 Mar             04 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             140/94             145/99



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 01 Mar :  A   K           
   Australian Region        6   3221 0223
      Darwin                6   3221 0123
      Townsville            5   3210 0223
      Learmonth             7   3221 1224
      Canberra              4   1220 0224
      Hobart                6   3221 0122
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 MAR : 
      Darwin                2   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              3   (Quiet)
      Hobart               12   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7   1012 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Mar    15    Quiet to unsettled with the chance of active 
                to minor storm periods late in the UT day. 
03 Mar    25    Unsettled to active with the chance of minor 
                storm periods. 
04 Mar    20    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 4 was issued on 1 March and 
is current for interval 2-3 March. A halo CME observed on 28 
February is expected to impact the Earth on 2-3 March and produce 
minor storm periods. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 Mar      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
04 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions are expected for 3-4 March due 
to anticipated geomagnetic activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
01 Mar   145

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
     Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for March: 114

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Mar   130    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
03 Mar    90    10 to 20% below predicted monthly values 
04 Mar   100    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 8 was issued on 1 March 
and is current for interval 3-4 March. Degraded HF conditions 
are expected for 3-4 March due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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