[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 February 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z FEBRUARY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 MARCH - 03 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN    ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Feb: 132/86

GOES satellite data for 27 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.00E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B5.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Mar             02 Mar             03 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             135/89             140/94



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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Feb: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 28 Feb :  A   K           
   Australian Region       11   1123 4323
      Darwin                9   1122 4323
      Townsville           12   1123 4333
      Learmonth             8   2122 3233
      Canberra             10   0123 4322
      Hobart               10   0123 4322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 FEB : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              8   (Quiet)
      Hobart                6   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             13   3343 3211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Mar    12    Quiet to unsettled with the chance of active 
                periods. 
02 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
03 Mar    16    Unsettled to active 
COMMENT: A small shock/increase in solar wind speed was observed 
around 0930UT which could have been the result of the CME observed 
on 26 February. An isolated active period of geomagnetic activity 
was observed following the shock. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
02 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
03 Mar      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
28 Feb   138

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for February: 116

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Mar   130    Near predicted monthly values 
02 Mar   135    Near predicted monthly values 
03 Mar   115    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                15% 


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