[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 June 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 23/2330Z JUNE 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 24 JUNE - 26 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Jun:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M5.6    0015UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  X1.3    0408UT  probable   all    E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.3    0626UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Jun: 206/157

GOES satellite data for 22 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.20E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Jun             25 Jun             26 Jun
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   205/156            200/152            200/152

COMMENT: The relatively large region in the north west solar 
quadrant, region 9503 (N17W46) produced yesterdays M6 flare. 
This region is showing signs of declining area. Todays M5.6 and 
X1.2 event were produced by relatively small region 9511 located 
at (N09E25). The X1 event, was impulsive and like the recent 
high level M class events, is not expected to be geoeffective. 
There has been no type II/IV radio sweep signatures with these 
high level xray flares. Again, this implies that the energy of 
the flare is being trapped, and not esaping the sun. Region 9511 
has grown, and is now magnetically comple.  Futher M class 
activity, with chance of X class activity, is expected. 
Region 9503 may produce further M events as it declines. 
In addition, solar region development appears to be occuring in 
the far north-east quadrant of the solar disk. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 23 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   1210 1122
      Darwin               4   1211 12-2
      Townsville           2   1110 0022
      Learmonth           10   233- 22--
      Canberra             1   0200 1011
      Hobart               0   0--- ----
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 JUN : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              7   2212 3223     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Jun    12    Unsettled 
25 Jun    11    Unsettled 
26 Jun    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: A very weak shock expected on 23 June due to a weak 
mass ejection on 21 June has failed to eventuate. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
25 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
26 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions expected at high latitudes 
only during local night hours. SWFs expected on daylight circuits.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
23 Jun   145

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
     Near predicted monthly values during local day,
     Enhanced by 40% during local night.
     Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
  Northern Australian Region:
     Near predicted monthly values.
  Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
     Enhanced by 15% during local day,
     Enhanced by 15% during local night.
     Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
  Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
     Enhanced by 45% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for June: 118

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Jun   130    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
25 Jun   130    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
26 Jun   130    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 34 was issued on 23 June 
and is current for interval 23-24 June (SWFs). 

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