[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 June 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 22/2330Z JUNE 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 23 JUNE - 25 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Jun:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.7    2122UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
  M6.3    2222UT  probable   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Jun: 204/155

GOES satellite data for 21 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.2
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Jun             24 Jun             25 Jun
Activity     Moderate to High   Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   205/156            200/152            195/147

COMMENT: A solar region has become flare active.
The M6 solar flare had a slow decline which suggests 
that a proton event may be experienced over the next 24 hours. 
However, no type II radio sweep was observed on the Culgoora 
radio spectrograph suggesting that the energy of the flare did 
not escape the sun. Also no CME was discernable in C2 LASCO imagery 
around the time of the M6 event. The earlier M1 event appeared 
not to be CME associated. However A C5.5 event at 2028UT appeared 
to be associated with a non-earth directed (south-west) mass 
ejection. So, at this stage, based on limited data at time of 
issue of this report it appears that these xray events will not 
be geoeffective. This opinion will be reviewed as more event 
data/imagery becomes available. IPS HF Warning (Fadeouts) 34 
has been issued. No optical data was available for these events
in order to identify solar region of origin. 
Also, M5.6 0015UT (however, impulsive profile).
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 22 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       4   2211 1112
      Darwin               4   2211 1123
      Townsville           1   1200 0011
      Learmonth            8   2223 2223
      Canberra             1   2100 0012
      Hobart               0   1100 0002
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 JUN : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             13   2333 3333     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Jun    13    Unsettled to Active 
24 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
25 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Mild activity possible on 23 June due to recent weak CME. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : Possible over next 24 hours.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Jun      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair   
24 Jun      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair-normal   
25 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Possible mild degradation at high latitudes, local night 
hours, 23 June. A proton event may be experienced over next 24 
hours at high latitides. This is based on slow decline of xray 
flux of M6 event. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
22 Jun   138

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 15% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for June: 118

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Jun   130    Near predicted monthly values 
24 Jun   130    Near predicted monthly values 
25 Jun   130    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild degradation possible local night hours 23 June, 
southern Aus/NZ region. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060