[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 June 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 24/2330Z JUNE 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 25 JUNE - 27 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jun:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jun: 195/147

GOES satellite data for 23 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08 (normal)
       X-ray background: C1.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Jun             26 Jun             27 Jun
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   195/147            190/143            185/138

COMMENT: There have been no M or X class flares over past 24 
hours. Solar region 9511 which was showing rapid growth, now 
appears to be showing equally rapid decline, losing magnetic 
complexity. The moderately large region in the north-west remains 
magnetically complex, but is flare quiet. Some region development 
in the north-east quadrant has occurred. Isolated M class flaring 
now expected. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jun: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 24 Jun :  A   K           
   Australian Region       6   2222 2213
      Darwin               7   2211 23--
      Townsville           3   1111 1113
      Learmonth            9   2233 2223
      Canberra             3   1111 1202
      Hobart               -   ---- ----
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 JUN : 
      Darwin               7   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            20   (Quiet)
      Hobart              13   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             11                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              8   2112 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Jun    11    Unsettled 
26 Jun    12    Unsettled 
27 Jun     7    Quiet 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
26 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
27 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
24 Jun   150

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 20-30%.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for June: 118

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Jun   130    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
26 Jun   130    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
27 Jun   130    about 15% above predicted monthly values 


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