[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 July 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z JULY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JULY - 19 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:**YELLOW**     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jul:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/1N    0320UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jul: 150/105

GOES satellite data for 15 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.0E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Jul             18 Jul             19 Jul
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            155/109            160/114
COMMENT: SEC region 9539 produced another M1 event. Further isolated 
low level M class flare activity possible from this region. The 
interplanetary magnetic field was mildly southward for much of 
the UT day. Solar wind speed reamains moderatedly elevated, increasing 
to 500km/sec toward end of UT day. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 16 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       7   2213 2223
      Darwin               9   2323 2223
      Townsville           5   1212 2212
      Learmonth           11   3-23 3224
      Canberra             7   2213 2222
      Hobart               7   2213 2212
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 JUL : 
      Darwin              28   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra            59   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              78   (Active)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             16                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             11   2032 3442     
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Jul    14    Unsettled 
18 Jul    10    Quiet to unsettled 
19 Jul     8    Quiet to unsettled 
COMMENT: Mild activity may extend to 17 july, with southward 
IMF, and mildly elevated solar wind speed. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jul      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair          
18 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
19 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Mildly degarded conditions expected local night hours 
mid to high latitudes. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
16 Jul   114

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Spread F observed.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for July: 115

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Jul   115    near predicted monthly values 
18 Jul   115    near predicted monthly values 
19 Jul   115    near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions expected local night hours. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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