[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 July 01
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jul 16 09:13:05 EST 2001
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 15/2330Z JULY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JULY - 18 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:**YELLOW** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jul: 142/96
GOES satellite data for 14 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.50E+05 (normal)
X-ray background: B3.4
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Jul 17 Jul 18 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: Regiuon 9539 produced 4 C class flare but no further
M class events following yesterdays M1. Isolated low level M
class remains possible from this region. Solar wind speed fluctuated
over past 24 hours, and remains moderately elevated at around
440km/sec.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 15 Jul : A K
Australian Region 5 1111 2322
Darwin 5 2211 2222
Townsville 4 1111 2222
Learmonth 13 2222 4433
Canberra 5 0011 2322
Hobart 5 0111 2322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 JUL :
Darwin 6 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 13 (Quiet)
Hobart 12 (Quiet)
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 13 4422 3322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Jul 15 Unsettled to Active
17 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Recurrence suggests mild activity possible on 16 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
17 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
18 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mildly degarded conditions expected local night hours
mid to high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Jul 106
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed 15% to near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Spread F observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Jul 115 Near predicted monthly values
17 Jul 115 Near predicted monthly values
18 Jul 115 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions expected local night hours.
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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