[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 July 01
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 18 09:13:42 EST 2001
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z JULY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JULY - 20 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:**YELLOW** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jul: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jul: 146/100
GOES satellite data for 16 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal)
X-ray background: B4.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Jul 19 Jul 20 Jul
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: SEC region 9539 appears to have quietened in past 24
hours. A coronal mass ejection has been reported in ISES UCMEO
code in association with an erupting solar filamment 16/1606-17/1218UT.
CME was 149 degrees in span, across the northern hemisphere of
the solar disk, and based on this information is considered
non-geoeffective. Solar wind speed has increased to 650km/sec toward
end of UT day, probably coronal hole related.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 17 Jul : A K
Australian Region 9 3322 2221
Darwin 9 3322 2221
Townsville 8 3312 1222
Learmonth 14 3423 3322
Canberra 10 3323 2221
Hobart 10 3322 3221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 JUL :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 16 (Quiet)
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 17 3433 3434
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Jul 10 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Jul 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mild activity may extend to 18 july, with southward
IMF, and mildly elevated solar wind speed. Conditions are then
expected to be quiet until around 22 July, as an other recurrent
pattern implies mild geomagentic activity on this day.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
19 Jul Normal Normal Normal
20 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mildly degarded conditions expected local night hours
mid to high latitudes due to elevated solar wind speed.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Jul 118
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day,
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Spread F observed.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Spread F observed.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Jul 115 near predicted monthly values
19 Jul 115 near predicted monthly values
20 Jul 115 near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions expected local night hours.
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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