[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 July 01
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jul 13 09:10:08 EST 2001
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 12/2330Z JULY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 13 JULY - 15 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Jul: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Jul: 134/88
GOES satellite data for 11 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+05 (normal)
X-ray background: B3.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Jul 14 Jul 15 Jul
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic
field was mildly southward 06-16UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Jul: Quiet
Estimated Indices 12 Jul : A K
Australian Region 5 1222 2122
Darwin 6 2222 2122
Townsville 2 1110 1010
Learmonth 7 2222 2222
Canberra 6 1-22 2223
Hobart 5 1112 2221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 JUL :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 23 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 16 (Quiet)
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 9 3311 2332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Jul 7 Quiet
14 Jul 7 Quiet
15 Jul 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: Recurrence suggests mild activity possible on 16 July.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Jul Normal Normal Normal
14 Jul Normal Normal Normal
15 Jul Normal Normal Normal-Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation at high latitudes, local night hours,
due to mildy southward IMF.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Jul 110
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Equatorial PNG Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day,
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values,
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for July: 115
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Jul 120 near predicted monthly values
14 Jul 120 Near predicted monthly values
15 Jul 120 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mild degradation local night hours southern Aus/NZ region,
associated with southward IMF.
IPS Radio and Space Services | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 | fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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