[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 July 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 13/2330Z JULY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JULY - 16 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:*YELLOW*     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Jul: 133/87

GOES satellite data for 12 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.10E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.0
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Jul             15 Jul             16 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             140/94

COMMENT: The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic 
field was moderately southward after 18UT. Solar wind speed also 
showed a moderate increase after this time. Solar wind speed 
may increase over next two days due to recurrent effects. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 13 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       2   1211 0012
      Darwin               2   1211 0012
      Townsville           1   1200 0012
      Learmonth            8   3222 2223
      Canberra             2   1111 0011
      Hobart               1   0101 0011
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 JUL : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9   2232 3323     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Jul     7    Quiet 
15 Jul    12    Unsettled 
16 Jul    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Recurrence suggests mild activity possible on 16 July. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Jul      Normal         Normal-Fair    Normal-Fair
15 Jul      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
16 Jul      Normal         Normal-Fair    Fair
COMMENT: Mild degradation at high latitudes, local night hours. 
Mildly degraded conditions expected local night hours mid to high
latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
13 Jul   117

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Spread F observed.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
      Spread F observed.


Predicted Monthly T index for July: 115

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Jul   115    Near predicted monthly values 
15 Jul   115    Near predicted monthly values 
16 Jul   115    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Mild degradation local night hours southern Aus/NZ region. 
Mildly degraded conditions expected local night hours next two days.

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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