[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 July 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 11/2330Z JULY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 12 JULY - 14 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Jul:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Jul: 132/86

GOES satellite data for 10 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.0E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Jul             13 Jul             14 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity may increase in coming days due to possibility 
of returning regions. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Jul: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 11 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       3   2211 1012
      Darwin               2   2210 0012
      Townsville           2   1211 0012
      Learmonth            8   2322 2222
      Canberra             4   2310 1002
      Hobart               2   2210 1001
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 JUL : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             11   1233 3333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Jul     7    Quiet 
13 Jul     7    Quiet 
14 Jul     7    Quiet 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal        
13 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal        
14 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal        

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
11 Jul   124

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for July: 115

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Jul   120    near predicted monthly values 
13 Jul   120    near predicted monthly values 
14 Jul   120    Near predicted monthly values 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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