[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 05 July 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 05/2330Z JULY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 06 JULY - 08 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Jul: 120/72

GOES satellite data for 04 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.2E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.30E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B2.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             06 Jul             07 Jul             08 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             120/72

COMMENT: A small filament dissappeared from the south-east quadrant 
of the solar disk overnight. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Jul: Quiet to unsettled 

Estimated Indices 05 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       8   2222 1331
      Darwin               8   2222 2230
      Townsville           4   1111 1220
      Learmonth            -   ---- ----
      Canberra             8   2222 1331
      Hobart               6   1221 1321
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 JUL : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   2212 3323     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
06 Jul    13    Unsettled to Active 
07 Jul    15    Unsettled to Active 
08 Jul    10    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Recurrence suggests mild activity possible on 6-7 July. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
07 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
08 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal        
COMMENT: Possible mild degradation at high latitudes, local night 
hours, 06-07 July. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
05 Jul   125

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
      Some spread F observed.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for July: 115

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
06 Jul   130    Near predicted monthly values 
07 Jul   130    Near predicted monthly values 
08 Jul   130    Near predicted monthly values 


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