[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 July 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 04/2330Z JULY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 05 JULY - 07 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Jul:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Jul: 127/80

GOES satellite data for 03 Jul
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.2E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B3.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Jul             06 Jul             07 Jul
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             135/89

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Jul: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 04 Jul :  A   K           
   Australian Region       5   2212 1212
      Darwin               4   2212 1101
      Townsville           -   ---- ----
      Learmonth            8   2223 2223
      Canberra             2   2101 0201
      Hobart               3   2101 021-
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 JUL : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth           NA
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart              18   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Jul : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jul :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              9   1223 3333     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Jul     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
06 Jul    13    Unsettled to Active 
07 Jul    15    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: Recurrence suggests mild activity possible on 6-7 July. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal        
06 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
07 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: Possible mild degradation at high latitudes, local night 
hours, 06-07 July. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
04 Jul   133

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for July: 115

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Jul   130    Near predicted monthly values 
06 Jul   130    Near predicted monthly values 
07 Jul   130    Near predicted monthly values 


IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060