[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 January 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 29/2330Z JANUARY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 30 JANUARY - 01 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Jan: 165/119

GOES satellite data for 28 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.7E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+07 (normal)
       X-ray background: B8.1
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 Jan             31 Jan             01 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   160/114            160/114            155/109

COMMENT: The north-south component of the IMF was again southward 
early in the uT day. Solar wind speed gradually increased from 
350 to 450km/sec over UT day. Increasing wind speed may be from 
coronal hole in sun's southern hemisphere. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Jan: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 29 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       11   3432 1224
      Darwin                9   3332 1223
      Townsville            9   2332 1234
      Learmonth            12   4422 2224
      Canberra             11   2432 1234
      Hobart                9   2432 1123
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 JAN : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra              2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               19   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   0112 3222     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 Jan    11    Unsettled 
31 Jan    25    Initially unsettled, then active to minor storm periods. 
01 Feb    13    Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 2 was issued on 28 January and 
is current for interval 31 January only. Active periods associated 
with southward IMF early in UT day. Active to minor storm conditions 
are likely in second half of UT day on 31 Jan following M1/CME 
event. In addition recurrence suggests unsettled to active conditions 
on 31 Jan. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jan      Normal         Fair-normal    Poor-fair      
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 28 01 2001 2045UT and is in progress
            (declining just above event threshold at time of report issue)

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jan      Normal         Normal         Poor-normal   
31 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-poor   
01 Feb      Normal         Fair-normal    Poor-normal   
COMMENT: High latitude HF conditions should improve as proton 
flux levels are declining. A further degradation in HF comms 
quality at high latitudes is expected 31 Jan-01 Feb. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
29 Jan   112

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      Enhanced by 30-50% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January: 117

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 Jan   120    Near predicted monthly values 
31 Jan   100    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20% 
01 Feb   100    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 2 was issued on 29 January 
and is current for interval 31 January to 1 February. Degraded 
HF conditions expected for southern region MUFs 31 Jan/01 Feb 
in association with anticipated geomagnetic activity from M1/CME 
event and recurrent factors. 

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