[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 January 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 30/2330Z JANUARY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JANUARY - 02 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jan: 160/114

GOES satellite data for 29 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.0E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.1E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.20E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Jan             01 Feb             02 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   160/114            155/109            160/114

COMMENT: A small mass ejection was observed around 19UT on the 
eastern limb of the sun. This event may be associated with the 
C1 xray enhancement and optical subfaint flare around this time, 
from new region 9330, located in the northeast quadrant of the 
solar disk. Two other regions have emerged in the northeast solar 
quadrant. Flare activity may increase if these regions continue 
to develop. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 30 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region        3   2211 0013
      Darwin                2   2210 0012
      Townsville            3   2211 0113
      Learmonth             5   3221 1113
      Canberra              2   2210 0013
      Hobart                4   2311 0002
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 JAN : 
      Darwin               10   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             34   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart               50   (Unsettled)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        16
           Planetary             13   4431 1223     
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Jan    25    Initially unsettled, then active to minor storm 
                periods. 
01 Feb    13    Unsettled 
02 Feb     6    Quiet 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 2 was issued on 28 January and 
is current for interval 31 January only. The geomagnetic field 
is expected to be initially quiet today, then increasing to active 
levels, with the chance of minor storm periods during second 
half of UT day on 31 Jan following M1/CME event on 28 Jan. Field 
is expected to return to unsettled levels during 01 Feb. Disturbance 
is expected to be resonably brief and not that intense due to 
apparent westward bias of mass ejection. In addition recurrence 
suggests unsettled to active conditions on 31 Jan. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jan      Normal         Fair-normal    Poor-normal    
PCA Event : Began at 2045UT 28/01, Ended at 0045UT 30/01
 
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Jan      Fair           Fair           Fair-Poor
01 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
02 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
COMMENT: High latitude HF conditions improved early in UT day 
yesterday as proton event ended. HF conditions are initially 
expected to be mostly normal then becoming degraded for second 
half of UT day on 31 Jan, and first half of UT on 01 Feb for 
mid to high latitudes. Degradation expected in anticipation of 
moderate geomagnetic activity. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
30 Jan   114

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January: 117

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Jan   110    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 20% 
01 Feb    90    depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 
02 Feb   130    Near predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 2 was issued on 29 January 
and is current for interval 31 January to 1 February. Degraded 
HF conditions expected for southern region MUFs late 31 Jan/01 
Feb in association with anticipated geomagnetic activity from 
M1/CME event and recurrent factors. 

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