[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 January 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 28/2330Z JANUARY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 29 JANUARY - 31 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** RED **     ION: **YELLOW**
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Jan:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/1N    1603UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Jan: 168/122

GOES satellite data for 27 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.20E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B5.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Jan             30 Jan             31 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   165/119            160/114            160/114

COMMENT: The M1 event was associated with a coronal mass ejection 
and a proton event which began at 2045UT on 28 Jan. The main 
mass ejection direction appeared to be biased more westward, 
with some fraction earthward directed. The M1 flare was from
a decaying region in the far southwest quadrant of the solar disk.
The north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field 
(IMF) was southward 02-07UT, and fluctuated southward 16-21UT. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 28 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region        9   2222 3323
      Darwin                9   2222 3234
      Townsville            8   2222 2323
      Learmonth            12   -322 333-
      Canberra              8   1232 2323
      Hobart                9   1233 3223
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 JAN : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              0   (Quiet)
      Hobart                2   (Quiet)

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              4   2210 1221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Jan     4    Quiet 
30 Jan    11    Unsettled 
31 Jan    25    Initially unsettled, then active to minor storm 
                periods. 
COMMENT: Active to minor storm conditions are likely in second 
half of UT day on 31 Jan following M1/CME event. In addition 
recurrence suggests unsettled to active conditions on 31 Jan. 
Also, there is a very outside chance for a small impulse in the 
field second half of UT day on 29 Jan from an earlier event. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Jan      Normal         Fair-normal    Normal-poor    
PCA Event : 10Mev Proton/PCA Event Began 28 01 2001 2045UT and 
is in progress.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Jan      Normal         Normal         Poor-fair     
30 Jan      Normal         Normal         Fair          
31 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor     
COMMENT: Mild degradatoion in HF conditions at mid latitudes 
observed early in UT day yesterday. Absorption observed at high 
latitudes, after 21UT following commencement of weak proton event. 
High altitude HF comms expected to be degraded by proton event 
on 29 Jan, and by anticipated geomagnetic activity on 31 Jan. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
28 Jan   123

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
      with MUFs mildly depressed local day.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for January: 117
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Jan   120    Near predicted monthly values 
30 Jan   120    Near predicted monthly values 
31 Jan   100    near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 20% 
COMMENT: Degraded HF conditions expected for southern region 
MUFs 31 Jan/01 Feb in association with anticipated geomagnetic 
activity from M1/CME event. 

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