[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 January 01

[rwc]

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 21/2330Z JANUARY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 22 JANUARY - 24 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Jan:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M7/2B 20/2120UT  probable   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Jan: 152/107

GOES satellite data for 20 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.60E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.3
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 Jan             23 Jan             24 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            160/114            165/119


-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Jan: Quiet to Active 

Estimated Indices 21 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region       16   3334 3333
      Darwin               17   3334 33--
      Townsville           17   3334 33--
      Learmonth            18   3334 3433
      Canberra             16   2334 342-
      Hobart               14   2334 32--
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 JAN : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra              5   (Quiet)
      Hobart                4   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   0032 3233     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 Jan    13    Unsettled to Active 
23 Jan    30    Active to Minor storm 
24 Jan    12    Unsettled 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 20 January and 
is current for interval 22-24 January. Long period of sustained 
IMB Bz negative lasting until 1300UT on 21 Jan triggered unsettled 
to active levels of geomagnetic activity. Chance of unsettled 
to active with a chance of minor storm conditions are expected 
for the 22 Jan and 23 Jan following CMEs observed on 20 JAN after 
1849 and 2119 UT from region 9313. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jan      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
23 Jan      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor     
24 Jan      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal   
COMMENT: Chance SWFs over the next couple days. Depressed MUFs 
may be expected on the 23 JAN following shocks anticipated arrival 
of shocks associated with the recent flare/CME activity of region 
9313. 
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
21 Jan   152

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January: 117

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 Jan   140    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
23 Jan   120    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
24 Jan   145    about 20% above predicted monthly values 
COMMENT: Chance of depressed ionospheric conditions are expected 
on the 23 JAN following the anticipated arrival of shocks associated 
with the recent CMEs produced by region 9313. 

IPS Radio and Space Services      | email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                       | WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au/asfc
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA     | FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au/users/asfc/ 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010              | fax: +61 2 9213 8060