[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 January 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 20/2330Z JANUARY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 21 JANUARY - 23 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Jan:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/2F    1834UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American
 M7/--    2119UT  probable   all    East Pacific/
				    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Jan: 153/108

GOES satellite data for 19 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B4.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Jan             22 Jan             23 Jan
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            160/114            165/119

COMMENT: Region 9313 was the source of a M1.2 and probably a 
M7.6 flares peaking at 18:49 and 21:19 UT respectively. Both 
were accompagnied by type II sweeps. Given the magnetic complexity 
of 9313, further flares activity is expected over the following 
days. 
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 20 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region        8   1223 3223
      Darwin                8   1223 3213
      Townsville            8   1223 3223
      Learmonth             9   2223 3223
      Canberra             11   1233 3323
      Hobart               11   1233 3324
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 JAN : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              0   (Quiet)
      Hobart                0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1100 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
22 Jan    13    Unsettled to Active 
23 Jan    30    Active to Minor storm 
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 1 was issued on 20 January and 
is current for interval 22-24 January. Long period of sustained 
IMB Bz negative atfer 1000UT on 20 Jan triggered unsettled levels 
of geomagnetic activity. A CME associated with a M1.2 long duration 
flare observed at around 1730UT on 19 Jan from region 9313 on 
the eastern solar hemisphere. Chance of unsettled to active with 
a chance of minor storm conditions are expected for the 22 Jan 
and 23 Jan following further flares/CMEs observed on 20 JAN after 
1849 and 2119 UT from the same region. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
22 Jan      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal   
23 Jan      Normal-fair    Fair-normal    Fair-poor     
COMMENT: Chance SWFs over the next couple days. Depressed MUFs 
may be expected on the 23 JAN following shocks anticipated arrival 
of shocks associated with the recent flare/CME activity of region 
9313. 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
20 Jan   161

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January: 117

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Jan   155    about 30% above predicted monthly values 
22 Jan   155    about 30% above predicted monthly values 
23 Jan   120    near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to 
                10% 
COMMENT: Chance of depressed ionospheric conditions are expected 
on the 23 JAN following the anticipated arrival of shocks associated 
with the recent CMEs produced by region 9313. 

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