[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 January 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 19/2330Z JANUARY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 20 JANUARY - 22 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Jan:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/SF    1710UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Jan: 153/108

GOES satellite data for 18 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+05 (normal)
       X-ray background: B5.8
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Jan             21 Jan             22 Jan
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            145/99             150/105
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 19 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region        3   2220 1012
      Darwin                5   2320 1012
      Townsville            5   23-1 1023
      Learmonth             4   2211 1022
      Canberra              3   2220 1012
      Hobart                3   2210 1012
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 JAN : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              0   (Quiet)
      Hobart                0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   0012 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Jan     5    Quiet 
21 Jan     4    Quiet 
22 Jan    13    Unsettled to Active 
COMMENT: A CME associated with a M1.2 long duration flare at
around 1730UT on 19 Jan from region 9313 on the eastern solar 
hemisphere was observed, chance of unsettled to possibly active
conditions expected for the 22 Jan. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
21 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
22 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
19 Jan   147

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG and Northern Australian Regions:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January: 117

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Jan   145    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
21 Jan   145    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
22 Jan   130    about 10% above predicted monthly values 

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