[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 January 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 18/2330Z JANUARY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 19 JANUARY - 21 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Jan: 152/107

GOES satellite data for 17 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B7.9
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 Jan             20 Jan             21 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   148/102            145/99             140/94


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Jan: Quiet 

Estimated Indices 18 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region        5   1122 2122
      Darwin                4   1122 2112
      Townsville            6   1123 2122
      Learmonth             6   122- 2223
      Canberra              6   1132 2022
      Hobart                5   1132 2012
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 JAN : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               18   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              7   3101 2332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 Jan     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
20 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
21 Jan     7    Quiet 
COMMENT: Unsettled conditions may be expected early on the 19 
Jan triggered by long interval of IMF Bz negative starting at 
around 1900UT on 18 Jan. A small centrally located coronal hole 
may lead to further unsettled levels over the next couple of 
days. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
20 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
21 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair   
COMMENT: 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
18 Jan   166

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January: 117

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 Jan   165    about 30% above predicted monthly values 
20 Jan   160    about 30% above predicted monthly values 
21 Jan   160    about 30% above predicted monthly values 

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