[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 January 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 17/2330Z JANUARY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 18 JANUARY - 20 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jan: 152/107

GOES satellite data for 16 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B5.5
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Jan             19 Jan             20 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   155/109            145/99             140/94


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 17 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region        7   2211 2323
      Darwin                7   2211 2323
      Townsville            8   2211 2423
      Learmonth             8   2211 2423
      Canberra              6   1211 2323
      Hobart                6   1220 1322
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 JAN : 
      Darwin                4   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              0   (Quiet)
      Hobart                0   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6   0022 3231     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Jan     8    Quiet to Unsettled 
19 Jan     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
20 Jan     9    Quiet to Unsettled 
COMMENT: Chance of unsettled periods are possible after a weak 
shock was detected at 1531UT on the 17 JAN. A small centrally 
located coronal hole may further influence geomagnetic activity 
over the next couple of days. 
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
19 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
20 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair
COMMENT: 
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
17 Jan   163

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January: 117

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Jan   160    about 20% above predicted monthly values 
19 Jan   155    about 15% above predicted monthly values 
20 Jan   140    near predicted monthly values 

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