[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 January 01

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SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 16/2330Z JANUARY 2001 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JANUARY - 19 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jan: 162/116

GOES satellite data for 15 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal)
       X-ray background: B6.7
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Jan             18 Jan             19 Jan
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   160/114            155/109            150/105


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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled 

Estimated Indices 16 Jan :  A   K           
   Australian Region        7   2122 3212
      Darwin                5   2112 3113
      Townsville            7   2122 3212
      Learmonth             7   -222 3112
      Canberra              9   2222 4212
      Hobart                8   2122 4211
    
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 JAN : 
      Darwin                0   (Quiet)
      Townsville            0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra              4   (Quiet)
      Hobart                2   (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3 indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3 indices for that station.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7   0023 3223     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Jan     5    Quiet 
18 Jan     5    Quiet 
19 Jan    10    Unsettled 

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal         
PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-Fair

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date   T index
16 Jan   141

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Equatorial PNG Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day,
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values,
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.


Predicted Monthly T index for January: 117

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Jan   135    Near predicted monthly values 
18 Jan   135    Near predicted monthly values 
19 Jan   140    Near predicted monthly values 


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